Momentum. Sanders has Are You Drunk Yes No shirt and Hilary does not, there’s no question. The next State up is Wyoming and since I cannot find a single poll for the State all we’re left with is some educated guesswork based on the demographics of so called similar states- something I’m not a fan of since history is no guide. Sanders should do well and if he does then he’ll have won the last 8 states in a row by comfortable margins. That is bound to have some effect on the psychological mind-set of voters going in to New York but trying to equate that to an actual boost in numbers is impossible, particularly because it’s a closed primary. I never make hard predictions but if I had to guess I’d say that New York is likely to be closer than the 10 point lead the polls suggest. So we could stay positive and decide that the polls will be out by ten points again which would make things 50/50 but alas, breaking even is not going to change the narrative.
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Look at the crosswalk signs instead of Are You Drunk Yes No shirt. It took me a month to fully understand but New Yorkers aren’t just completely ignoring those signs purely because they’re in a rush. In NYC you’re MUCH MORE LIKELY to get hit by a car “legally” in a crosswalk when a cab just speeds through a red light than “illegally” walking when you look and see that there’s no cars coming. Locals will NOT appreciate you blocking the crosswalk because a sign says you shouldn’t cross. The NYPD completely ignores jaywalking and indeed will jaywalk themselves, I’ve never even HEARD of a New Yorker being ticketed for it.