The obvious answer would be to simply pull off wins in the This Girl Runs On Jesus And Ballet Gift Christian shirt of states he did last time. He could also afford to lose MI and PA. If he were to lose Florida it gets more difficult, not least because it would be extremely unlikely that he could lose Florida and still retain MI and PA. The tactical answer is probably a mix of beating the anti-China drum (which he is better placed to do), focusing on real or perceived scandals within the prior administration and the Biden family and focus on his “we built the best economy and we will do it again” sort of messaging. A return to some level of normalcy relative to Covid-19, would help, but this will be decided more by the fates of medical R&D than any officeholder.
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The question does seem to presuppose that This Girl Runs On Jesus And Ballet Gift Christian shirt, which is plainly false. Even prediction markets as of this moment (23 May) give Trump a slight edge on the headline question of “Who will be the next President” – interestingly however, the sum of state-by-state prediction market outcomes suggest the Democrat would win the electoral college 290–248. Arbitrage opportunity for someone. Generally speaking, we re-elect incumbent Presidents but switch incumbent parties every eight years (the reason why Trump’s original victory was far more expected than people seemed to believe). There are exceptions – Reagan over Carter in 1980 and Bush 41’s victory over Dukakis in 1988 and subsequent loss to Clinton the next time. There are good reasons why these were exceptional circumstances which are beyond the scope of this question (although it is worth considering that the second and third cases viewed together tend to affirm the general rule of thumb). The question is if current circumstances are sufficiently exceptional to make the incumbent truly vulnerable and if his opponent will be able to fully capitalize on that vulnerability.