PA historically has really high turn out rates. In 2016, it hit 87%. I think it’s reasonable to assume 90% turn out, which last happened in 2008. I have to say you got to handed to Pennsylvanians, they register and Unicorn Reindeer This Is My Christmas Pajama shirt. Trump won in 2016 by fewer than 50k votes, and right now he has almost a 1.1 million votes deficit to make up. Of course the remaining demographics favors trump. While there are more registered democrats in PA, almost of a 1/4 of them has already voted. about 1/7 of the registered republicans have voted so far. So after subtracting the current votes, the party registration is about dead even with people who has not voted and Trump needs to about 60% of what’s left on election day to over come the projected deficit. Not impossible, but seems like a very tall task. Again, turn out will be key, a lot of democratic area has mailed in majority of the ballot returned so far, which simply means more republicans will be showing at the polls on Tuesday and I can only imagine the scene come Tuesday. However this definitely has the potential of turning into a spectacle come Tuesday night.
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Yes you read that correctly, 9.7 million Texans, 13% more than 2016 has already voted, which amounts to about Unicorn Reindeer This Is My Christmas Pajama shirt of the total registered voter in Texas. This level of turn out in Texas has not happened in generations. Trump won the state by about 800k votes in 2016, Ted Cruz only won his senate re-election by about 200k votes in 2018 with not nearly the turn out. Texas Tribute compiled some statistics from the top 10 individual county offices which votes heavily democratic. They found that those 10 counties accounted for about 30% more of the new result totals than rest of the state combined. Would that be enough to overcome the build in advantage ? Really really difficult to say absent of other demographical information. Texas has actually taking a fairly drastic turn toward the democrats in the last cycle and sheer amount of voters is poised to turn conventional wisdom on their head. It’s something I don’t think one should bet their house on but I think any reasonable republican operative should be worried. Given where the growth of the votes are, it’s not difficult to imagine Joe Biden actually has the lead right now based current vote tally. It’s just impossible to tell how big those lead actually is, is it 200k ? is it 500k ? And will it stand up after another 3 million votes where Republicans should have the advantage on election day ? Well, it’s not hyperbole to say this is truly unprecedented and anyone tell you that they know is lying.